Tuesday Night Open Thread
10 hours ago
Showing posts with label Gallup. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gallup. Show all posts
Monday, November 3, 2008
Reality Check Before Election Day - Poll Wrap-Up
Here's a wrap-up of where things stand -- with the proviso that you should not grow complacent by how good things look right now:
FiveThirtyEight.com's projections:
Pollster.com's Poll of Polls/Trendlines:
Final CBS News Poll:
With just three days left until Election Day, a new CBS News poll finds that the Democratic presidential ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden leads its Republican counterpart by 13 points among likely voters, 54 percent to 41 percent. That margin reflects an increase of two points in the Obama-Biden ticket's lead from a CBS News/New York Times poll released Thursday.
About one in five voters say they have already cast their vote, either in person or through the mail, and these early voters prefer the Democratic ticket by an even greater margin. Obama leads among early voters 57 percent to 38 percent, a nineteen point advantage.
Final Gallup Poll/Estimate:
The final Gallup 2008 pre-election poll -- based on Oct. 31-Nov. 2 Gallup Poll Daily tracking -- shows Barack Obama with a 53% to 42% advantage over John McCain among likely voters. When undecided voters are allocated proportionately to the two candidates to better approximate the actual vote, the estimate becomes 55% for Obama to 44% for McCain.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Gallup: Obama Hits 52% for First Time
Houston, Obama is entering orbit. For the first time this election cycle, Obama has hit 52% in the latest Gallup tracking poll and has opened up an 11% lead over McCain:
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Gallup: Obama Leads McCain by 9%
Obama is at his highest point in the Gallup tracking poll thus far, garnering 51% to McCain's 42% -- a spread of 9%:
Friday, September 19, 2008
Obama Expands Poll Lead Over McCain
The deflation of the Palin bubble continues. Obama now leads McCain by 5 points, garnering 49% to McCain's 44%, in the new Gallup daily tracking poll:
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Bye Bye Bounce II: Gallup
Oh the sweet, sweet smell of a napalmed bounce in the morning:
Update: Here's a summary of all the daily tracking polls out today:
Gallup: Obama 48%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama moved into a narrow lead of 47%-45%.
Rasmussen: McCain 48%, Obama 48%, with a ±2% margin of error. Yesterday, McCain had a bare edge of 48%-47%.
Hotline/Diageo: Obama 46%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.2% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 45%-42%.
Research 2000: Obama 49%, McCain 43%, with a ±3% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 48%-44%.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Convention Bounce; Electoral College Solid
I don't pay much attention to the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll (which has been described as "the worst thing that's happened to journalism in 20 years") but today's poll shows a nice bounce for Obama even before he's given his acceptance speech (click the graphic to see a larger image):
The important analysis, however, is, as always, an analysis of the electoral college map, which is looking ever-stronger for Obama:
Electoral College: Obama 260, McCain 206, Toss-up 72 (270 to win)
(Dark Blue (183): Obama +7.6% or more
Lean Blue (77): Obama +2.6%-+7.5%
White / Toss-up (72): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (44): McCain +2.6%-+7.5%
Dark Red (162): McCain +7.6% or more)
New polls from California, Colorado, Florida (2), Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. The only category change is Missouri moving from "Lean McCain" to "Solid McCain." Here is the swing state chart:
(Swing States are defined as states closer than 5.0%)
| State | EV's | Obama % | McCain % | Margin | Obama Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Obama Base | 260 | 260 | |||
| Colorado | 9 | 45.4% | 43.9% | +1.5% | 269 |
| Virginia | 13 | 45.4% | 45.0% | +0.4% | 282 |
| Montana | 3 | 47.0% | 47.0% | Even | 285 |
| Ohio | 20 | 42.8% | 42.8% | Even | 305 |
| Nevada | 5 | 43.6% | 44.0% | -0.4% | 310 |
| Alaska | 3 | 43.5% | 44.0% | -0.5% | 313 |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 43.7% | 44.3% | -0.6% | 317 |
| North Carolina | 15 | 43.5% | 45.7% | -2.2% | 332 |
| Florida | 27 | 43.2% | 45.9% | -2.7% | 359 |
| North Dakota | 3 | 42.0% | 45.0% | -3.0% | 362 |
| South Dakota | 3 | 40.0% | 44.0% | -4.0% | 365 |
| McCain Base | 173 | 173 |
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Democrats More Confident of Win in November
This new poll is a pretty dramatic. WAY more Democrats have faith in their chance of winning the election in November. This is going to translate into some really interesting turnout numbers:
A new Gallup Panel survey, conducted May 19-21, finds 61% of Democrats saying they are confident their party will win the election, including 35% who are "very confident." Meanwhile, only 39% of Republicans are confident, with only 13% saying they are very confident.
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Obama Dominates Nearly ALL Demographics
Ok, so now Gallup makes it official. Can we PLEASE stop feeding into the "working-class white people like Hillary" media ridiculousness?
Gallup shows Obama ahead of Clinton in ALL demographics, including whites (tied), women, less educated voters, working class voters, more educated voters and other minorities including Hispanics. The only demographic Clinton still does better in is old people. End of story. Full Stop.
Monday, May 19, 2008
Gallup: Obama Leads Clinton by 16%
In case you forgot the primary race is still ongoing, the newest Gallup tracking poll shows Obama with a whopping 1116% lead over Clinton:
Obama's previous largest lead was 11 percentage points, in May 15-17 and April 12-14 polling. His widening lead over Clinton has been evident in each of the last three days of tracking, after the two had been more closely matched earlier in the month.
Monday, May 12, 2008
Obama Ahead by 7% in New Gallup
Obama, the presumptive nominee, is now leading Hillary Clinton by 7% according to the most recent Gallup tracking poll:
Monday, April 21, 2008
Gallup: Obama Up By 7% Nationally
From Gallup:
Support for Barack Obama's nomination bid has rebounded among national Democratic voters, who now favor him over Hillary Clinton by a seven percentage point margin, 49% to 42%.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Gallup: Obama Has 11-Point Lead
Barack Obama is maintaining his lead over Hillary Clinton among Democrats nationally in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking average, with a 51% to 40% margin in the April 12-14 average.
Says Gallup:
The current 11 percentage point lead is the largest for Obama this year, and marks the ninth consecutive day in which Obama has led Clinton by a statistically significant margin. The current Gallup Poll Daily tracking average is based on interviewing conducted Saturday, Sunday and Monday -- after the initial reports of Obama's controversial remarks about "bitter" small-town residents began to be reported in the news media.
Saturday, April 12, 2008
Obama Continues Lead in Polls
The Gallup Daily Tracking Poll continues to show Obama with a significant lead. He now commands 49% to Clinton's 42% - a gap of 7 points. This is his fifth straight day with such a significant lead.
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