Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts
Monday, November 3, 2008
Karl Rove: Obama to Win With 338 Electoral Votes
For some perspective, look at what Karl Rove's own polling data predicts for the election tomorrow:
McCain/Palin 24x7 Smear Machine Didn't Work
Numbers like this bolster my sometimes-flagging faith in the American people's resistance to lies and distortions:
Obama's favorable rating is 62% -- the highest that any presidential candidate has registered in Gallup's final pre-election polls going back to 1992.
Yep, after two solid months of nothing but lies, slime, derision and smears being volleyed from McCain's Fortress of Doom, Obama's favorables have climbed to the highest of any Presidential candidate in 15 years. Stay classy America -- you impress me with your ability to tune out the B.S.
Reality Check Before Election Day - Poll Wrap-Up
Here's a wrap-up of where things stand -- with the proviso that you should not grow complacent by how good things look right now:
FiveThirtyEight.com's projections:
Pollster.com's Poll of Polls/Trendlines:
Final CBS News Poll:
With just three days left until Election Day, a new CBS News poll finds that the Democratic presidential ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden leads its Republican counterpart by 13 points among likely voters, 54 percent to 41 percent. That margin reflects an increase of two points in the Obama-Biden ticket's lead from a CBS News/New York Times poll released Thursday.
About one in five voters say they have already cast their vote, either in person or through the mail, and these early voters prefer the Democratic ticket by an even greater margin. Obama leads among early voters 57 percent to 38 percent, a nineteen point advantage.
Final Gallup Poll/Estimate:
The final Gallup 2008 pre-election poll -- based on Oct. 31-Nov. 2 Gallup Poll Daily tracking -- shows Barack Obama with a 53% to 42% advantage over John McCain among likely voters. When undecided voters are allocated proportionately to the two candidates to better approximate the actual vote, the estimate becomes 55% for Obama to 44% for McCain.
Polling Quote of the Day
The newest Reuters/Zogby/C-SPAN poll shows Obama with a solid, unflapped lead:
Obama 49.5%, McCain 43.8%. Democrat Barack Obama experienced a strong single day of polling on Saturday, retaining a 5.7 point advantage that is right at the edge of the margin of error of the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll. The race has remained remarkably stable down the stretch, this three-day rolling average poll shows.
Here's a gem of a note added by esteemed pollster Zogby:
Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52%-42%. He leads by 10 among independents and has solidified his base. He leads among Hispanics by 38 points, African Americans by 88, 18-24 year olds by 36, 18-29 year olds by 25, 25-34 year olds by 16, women by 8, and men by 3. He has a 17 point lead among those who have already voted, 22 by those who have registered to vote in the past 6 months, Moderates by 34, Catholics by 10. He even receives 21% support among Conservatives...
Remember, as I said yesterday, one day does not make a trend. This is a three-day rolling average and no changes have been tectonic. A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else's) health.
Friday, October 31, 2008
Friday, October 24, 2008
Pollster Average for Obama Climbs to New High
Obama's lead in the Pollster.com average has never been higher:
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Reality Check on McCain in Pennsylvania
For the life of me, I can't understand McCain's gambit to pull out of Colorado and focus on Pennsylvania.
Look at the poll numbers:
Monday, October 20, 2008
Voters Reject Ayers Argument and Palin
A new ABC News poll shows voters rejecting Ayers as an issue and questioning McCain's judgment due to his pick of Sarah Quaylin:
More challenges for John McCain: Likely voters overwhelmingly reject his effort to make an issue of Barack Obama's association with 1960s radical William Ayers. Fallout continues from McCain's pick of Sarah Palin for vice president, with 52 percent saying it weakens their confidence in his judgment. And on optimism, it's Obama by 2-1.
Skepticism about the Ayers issue was one of the factors cited by Colin Powell in his endorsement of Obama yesterday, and in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, likely voters broadly agree: 60 percent say Obama's relationship with Ayers is not a legitimate issue in the presidential campaign; 37 percent say it is.
A couple of other nuggets ferreted out by Steve Benen:
And while I tend to think the media's interest in "optimism" is overstated, I suppose it's also worth mentioning that Obama enjoys a huge edge -- 62% to 30% -- when respondents are asked with candidate is more optimistic. Similarly, Obama also enjoys a big lead - 54% to 37% -- on which candidate has the better personality and temperament for office.
Friday, October 17, 2008
Obama Leads by 6 Points in MISSOURI
Color me impressed -- in a new Rasmussen poll, Obama leads McCain in MISSOURI by 52% to 46%. Yes, Missouri.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Saturday, October 11, 2008
Obama Trouncing McCain in Florida
There is simply no way that McCain can win without Florida, and the signs are not good for him:
Friday, October 10, 2008
Battleground Polls Show Obama With Huge Margins
Wow:
* In Ohio, Strategic Vision shows Obama leading McCain by two, 48% to 46%.
* In Florida, Strategic Vision shows Obama leading McCain by eight, 52% to 44%.
* In Virginia, Public Policy Polling shows Obama leading McCain by eight, 51% to 43%.
* In Wisconsin, a Research 2000 poll shows Obama leading McCain by 10, 51% to 41%.
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Poll Shows Obama Up by 8 in... W. Virginia!?
A new ARG poll shows Obama leading McCain 50% to 42%, an 8-point lead, in... WEST VIRGINIA. Yes, West Virginia.
Not to be too gauche but I've been to West Virginia a few times... and... let's just say that this poll surprises the bejesus out of me.
Here's the Pollster.com trend line/poll of polls for West Virginia:
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Gallup: Obama Hits 52% for First Time
Houston, Obama is entering orbit. For the first time this election cycle, Obama has hit 52% in the latest Gallup tracking poll and has opened up an 11% lead over McCain:
Obama's Favorability Boosted Dramatically by Debate
This is pretty amazing:
Before the debate, McCain had a 48/46 favorability rating; that improved to 56/36 by the end. But that’s about where Obama started the evening—54/36. After an hour and a half, Obama’s favorability numbers were 80/14. As Joe Biden would say, let me repeat that: 80% of the undecided voters had favorable views of Obama and only 14% saw him negatively for a net rating of +66. Not even Bill Clinton got such a warm response in town hall formats.
Polls Give Obama the Debate Win for Tonight
The polls show that Obama won the debate tonight handily:
In CNN's poll of debate-watchers, Obama won by a 54%-30% margin. In the CBS poll of uncommitted debate-watchers, Obama won 39%-27%.
The CNN poll's numbers were just read on TV, showing that Obama is seen as better on Iraq by 51%-47%, McCain has a 51%-46% edge on terrorism -- a subject where he's usually done much better than this -- and Obama wins 59%-37% on the economy. On the current financial crisis, Obama wins 57%-36%
Both the first presidential debate and the Veep debate showed the Dem winning -- and both were followed by the Democratic ticket gaining more and more in the polls.
Late Update: Some more numbers from the CNN poll were read just now on the air: Obama is seen as the stronger leader 54%-43%, and is more likable 65%-28%.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Gallup: Obama Leads McCain by 9%
Obama is at his highest point in the Gallup tracking poll thus far, garnering 51% to McCain's 42% -- a spread of 9%:
Ohio Is Now Obama Country
Recent polling has led pollsters to put swing state Ohio into the 'Leans Obama' column:
One other interesting note from TPM:Ohio seemed like a McCain state in September, but economic jitters and the final dissipation of McCain's convention bounce have now edged Obama into the lead in almost all of the recent polls:
• CNN: Obama 50%, McCain 47% (Oct 7)
• ABC/WaPo: Obama 51%, McCain 45% (Oct 6)
• Rasmussen: McCain 48%, Obama 47% (Oct 6)
• Columbus Dispatch: Obama 49%, McCain 42% (Oct 5)
• GQR (D): Obama 49%, McCain 43% (Oct 1)
• Quinnipiac: Obama 50%, McCain 42% (Oct 1)
The internals from the ABC/WaPo seem to disprove people who say Obama's candidacy is based on fluff. Among those respondents who say personal qualities are the most important, it's McCain who is winning by a 62%-34% margin. Those voters who say they're picking their candidate based on the issues are going to Obama 65%-30%.
Monday, October 6, 2008
Two Polls Show Obama Up by 10-12% in... Virginia!
I never thought I'd see the day when a Democrat could seriously contest Virginia:
As McCain's Lead Among White Virginians Shrinks, So Too His Chances of Holding The State's 13 Electoral Votes: 29 days until votes are counted in Virginia, Democrat Barack Obama is ahead 53% to 43%, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond, and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. In 4 tracking polls conducted since the Republican Convention, McCain has gone from up by 2 to down by 10.
Update: Another poll confirms it:
A Suffolk Poll shows Obama with a similarly commanding lead in the state, 51% to 39%.
Friday, October 3, 2008
Pollster: Obama Soaring; McCain at Lowest Point Ever
The latest Pollster.com poll of polls shows Obama soaring to his highest point yet and McCain cratering to the lowest level in the campaign thus far.
Obama now leads in the poll average 49.5% to McCain's 42.9%:
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