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Monday, November 3, 2008

Reality Check Before Election Day - Poll Wrap-Up

Here's a wrap-up of where things stand -- with the proviso that you should not grow complacent by how good things look right now:

FiveThirtyEight.com's projections:

Pollster.com's Poll of Polls/Trendlines:



Final CBS News Poll:

With just three days left until Election Day, a new CBS News poll finds that the Democratic presidential ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden leads its Republican counterpart by 13 points among likely voters, 54 percent to 41 percent. That margin reflects an increase of two points in the Obama-Biden ticket's lead from a CBS News/New York Times poll released Thursday.

About one in five voters say they have already cast their vote, either in person or through the mail, and these early voters prefer the Democratic ticket by an even greater margin. Obama leads among early voters 57 percent to 38 percent, a nineteen point advantage.

Final Gallup Poll/Estimate:
The final Gallup 2008 pre-election poll -- based on Oct. 31-Nov. 2 Gallup Poll Daily tracking -- shows Barack Obama with a 53% to 42% advantage over John McCain among likely voters. When undecided voters are allocated proportionately to the two candidates to better approximate the actual vote, the estimate becomes 55% for Obama to 44% for McCain.

2 comments:

Jamo said...

I just visited the 538 site and Nate has updated his odds, which now stand at Obama 98.1% chance of victory and McCain 1.9%. I suppose there is some sort of mathematical or statistical law that states that one cannot assign a value of '0' to the chance of anything potentially happening. However 1.9% comes pretty darn close!

Jamo said...

It's 11:33 AM PST on election day and I just visited 538.com and Nate has lowered McCain's chance of winning to 1.1%

I suppose the lowest numeric value possible would be .1%. It's getting closer and closer.....sort of like watching Bush's approval ratings.