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Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Nader Siphons From McCain Because of Clinton Supporters?
I was digging through the new Bloomberg/LA Times poll today and had an interesting thought based on the following observation in the story:
On a four-man ballot including independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr, voters chose Obama over McCain ... 48% to 33%.
Nader ... and Barr ... both appear to siphon more votes from McCain than they do from Obama. When Nader and Barr are added to the ballot, they draw most of their support from voters who said they would otherwise vote for the Republican.
Now, factor this in to the following with respect to the head-to-head match-up between McCain and Obama:
The great majority of Clinton voters have transferred their allegiance to Obama, the poll found. Only 11% of Clinton voters have defected to McCain.
Based on these numbers, I wonder if the addition of Nader to the mix is siphoning off a large chunk of the 11% of angry Clinton voters that might otherwise choose to support McCain as a second choice in a protest vote resulting from Clinton not getting the nomination.
After all, you'd hope that those 11% would be rational enough to realize that McCain would be disastrous for most of the policy positions that Hillary Clinton supports and that Nader would be much closer to Clinton that McCain would be (at least on most issues).
Could it be possible that in this kind of calculus, Nader could actually be worse for McCain than for Obama?
Hmm...
Posted by Metavirus at 6/24/2008 06:20:00 PM
Tags: Barack Obama , Bob Barr , Election 2008 , General Election , Hillary Clinton , Independents , John McCain , Ralph Nader , Republicans
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