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Thursday, August 28, 2008

Convention Bounce; Electoral College Solid

I don't pay much attention to the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll (which has been described as "the worst thing that's happened to journalism in 20 years") but today's poll shows a nice bounce for Obama even before he's given his acceptance speech (click the graphic to see a larger image):

The important analysis, however, is, as always, an analysis of the electoral college map, which is looking ever-stronger for Obama:

Electoral College: Obama 260, McCain 206, Toss-up 72 (270 to win)

(Dark Blue (183): Obama +7.6% or more
Lean Blue (77): Obama +2.6%-+7.5%
White / Toss-up (72): Obama +2.5% to McCain +2.5%
Lean Red (44): McCain +2.6%-+7.5%
Dark Red (162): McCain +7.6% or more

New polls from California, Colorado, Florida (2), Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. The only category change is Missouri moving from "Lean McCain" to "Solid McCain." Here is the swing state chart:

Swing State Overview (270 to win, 269 to tie)
(Swing States are defined as states closer than 5.0%)
State EV's Obama % McCain % Margin Obama Total
Obama Base 260

Colorado 9 45.4% 43.9% +1.5% 269
Virginia 13 45.4% 45.0% +0.4% 282
Montana 3 47.0% 47.0% Even 285
Ohio 20 42.8% 42.8% Even 305
Nevada 5 43.6% 44.0% -0.4% 310
Alaska 3 43.5% 44.0% -0.5% 313
New Hampshire 4 43.7% 44.3% -0.6% 317
North Carolina 15 43.5% 45.7% -2.2% 332
Florida 27 43.2% 45.9% -2.7% 359
North Dakota 3 42.0% 45.0% -3.0% 362
South Dakota 3 40.0% 44.0% -4.0% 365
McCain Base 173



S said...

The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote -- that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes — 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

Monitor said...

Thanks for the great comment. I largely agree.