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Wednesday, April 2, 2008

Fact Check: Clinton Behind Even With MI and FL

A particularly troubling and inaccurate meme on the Tubes these days among Hillary Clinton supporters is that somehow if Hillary Clinton were to get the Michigan and Florida delegations seated in the proportions she won in both states, she would magically become the front-runner.

Take for instance:

"[I'm] thinking about how FL/MI will be seated and counted, and the implications of that (Sen. Clinton being the frontrunner again)." on MyDD by SevenStrings

THE FACTS

Assumptions: For the sake of argument, let's assume the most likely of the unlikely scenarios:

(1) the Florida delegation is seated exactly as-is, according to the vote in Florida where no one was allowed to campaign; and

(2) the Michigan delegations are seated with Clinton getting the percentage that she received, in an election where only she left her name on the ballot, and Obama gets the delegates for the "uncommitted" votes.

POPULAR VOTE

Here are the popular vote numbers* from RealClearPolitics:

Popular Vote (w/o MI/FL):
Obama: 13,689,293
Clinton: 12,861,985
Spread: Obama +827,308
Popular Vote (w MI/FL):
Obama: 14,503,675
Clinton: 14,061,280
Spread: Obama +442,395

As you can see, even if MI and FL are included, Obama is still the frontrunner in the popular vote by more than 400,000 votes.

STATES WON

This is pretty simple, if MI and FL are counted, Clinton only picks up two states to add to her tally, bringing her from 13 to 15 (if you accept the notion that she "won" Texas and Nevada even though Obama received 3 and 1 more delegates, respectively.

This is compared to Obama's 29 states won.

DELEGATES

Here are the pledged delegate numbers from RealClearPolitics:

Pledged Delegates (w/o MI/FL):
Obama: 1,415
Clinton: 1,251
Spread: Obama +164
Pledged Delegates (w MI/FL) !* (w/ MI uncommitted for Obama):
Obama: 1,537
Clinton: 1,429
Spread: Obama +108
Pledged Delegates (w MI/FL) !* (w/o MI uncommitted for Obama):
Obama: 1,482
Clinton: 1,429
Spread: Obama +53

As you can see from the above, depending on whether or not the MI uncommitteds are pledged to Obama, Obama is still head by either 53 or 108 pledged delegates.


CONCLUSION AND PLEA

As the above analysis shows, Obama will still be ahead in pledged delegates, popular vote and states won even if FL and MI are seated as described above.

As a result, can I make a personal plea to Hillary supporters to simply debate on the facts and stop making the inaccurate claim that MI and FL would somehow magically make Sen. Clinton the "frontrunner"?

Notes:

* Includes estimated numbers from IA, NV, ME, WA, which did not release official numbers. The estimate from these four Caucus states where there are not official popular vote numbers only increases Senator Obama's popular vote margin by 110,224. As a result, the results of the analysis above do not change.

!* In Michigan, Clinton would get 73 pledged delegates and "Uncommitted" would receive 55. In Florida, Obama would get 67 pledged delegates and Clinton would get 105.

2 comments:

wanakeeh said...

Hillary and Bill Clinton really need to stop this hysterical, desperate attempt to hijack this election! It's outrageous and their battle cry against Obama, claiming he can't win flies in the face of him kicking her butt this election season!

Monitor said...

Amen