Tuesday, April 8, 2008
Superdelegates Flock to Obama
From Ezra Klein:
No one denies that Hillary Clinton's hopes for the nomination now rely on mass movement of superdelegates into her camp. It's a thin reed, but her supporters have held it close. The graph below tracks the movement of superdelegates since February 5th -- which means, it tracks the movement of superdelegates through Cinton's win in Ohio, through the revelations about Jeremiah Wright, through Clinton's victory in big states like California and New York. But even with all of that, the direction of superdelegate momentum is startlingly clear:
Since February 5th, Barack Obama has gained 69 superdelegates, while Clinton has lost two. And that's continued throughout some big losses and big hits for Obama. Which means it's not only that the math looks increasingly hard for Clinton. It's that the conceivable events that could reverse Obama's momentum aren't substantially impacting elites -- his lead has cemented enough that elite movement has overwhelmingly favored his campaign. Obama could, of course, be caught in bed with a live Arab or a dead Weatherman, but barring that sort of total implosion, it's very, very hard to figure out what could save Clinton's chances.
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